Researchers say Gaza death toll may be significantly higher than previously estimated

[iemanja]

The Palestinian death toll from the war in Gaza could be substantially higher than official figures reported by the Hamas-run health ministry, research published in The Lancet medical journal suggests. . .

It [The UK led study] https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2824%2902678-3
used data from the ministry, an online survey of relatives reporting fatalities, and obituaries. It estimated that up until 30 June 2024, 64,260 Palestinians died from traumatic injury, meaning an under-reporting of deaths by 41%

Israel says the numbers from the Gaza Health Ministry can't be trusted, but

Israel is not allowing international journalists from media organisations, including the BBC, independent access to Gaza, making it difficult to verify the facts on the ground. . . .

Researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture."

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine looked at how many people turned up repeatedly in different attempts to count deaths. The level of overlap between those lists suggested that the number of deaths directly caused by traumatic injury in the conflict could be significantly higher than hospital figures published by the Ministry of Health. . . .

The report in The Lancet estimated a death toll between 55,298–78,525 people, compared to 37,877 reported by the health ministry.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjvl4klzweo

The article and study are open access.

[malaise]

1. K & R

For truth

[Dave Bowman]

6. I wonder how long it will take for the damage control brigade to start trying to derail this thread.

[Lovie777]

9. Well you have shithole...........

[iemanja]

10. already happened

with a response that completely ignores the article and the study.

[Beastly Boy]

39. To say nothing of the OP.

But once the article and the study are not completely ignored, the largely amateurish nature of this study shines right through!

[Klarkashton]

2. And all this time there has been an outcry about how

The numbers were being inflated. Imagine that.

[iemanja]

4. Interesting, isn't it

And they will continue to spread those claims because it serves as a way for them to minimize Palestinian deaths.

[Lovie777]

3. much higher............

And it will not stop...........

[Bettie]

23. Well, it will stop

when everyone in Gaza is dead...then, they get to build resorts!

And Netanyahu will find someone else to attack to remain in power, it will probably be removing any Palestinians from the West Bank, since the right wing wants all of that land too...then, Lebanon.

[Hellbound Hellhound]

5. Looks like Hamas is manipulating the numbers again.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/10/13/why-the-gaza-health-ministry-s-death-count-is-considered-reliable_6729264_8.html

The same ministry "reporting" 37k dead "reported" 42k dead back in September. So now that there's a ceasefire, they're revising and underreporting numbers to make Israel and the Jews look bad, and their eager Hamas agents on the Internet are eating it up and redistributing it.

Idiots.

[iemanja]

7. This study says the numbers are far higher than Hamas estimates

Why do you ignore that point? Did you even read the article?

[iemanja]

11. It's based on an academic study

It's only "propaganda" to people who despise evidence, science, and the truth. You spot nothing. You don't even bother to offer a critique of the study's methods. You didn't even read it. The only propaganda here is yours.

[Hellbound Hellhound]

12. The "Methodology" includes "An Online Survey" from Hamas.

Are you actually serious? "The Internet Says" is now scientific fact?

Holy hell. There's nothing scientific about this study at all from the first five lines.

[iemanja]

13. It's published in a peer reviewed academic journal

that is not its sole methodology. You are not being truthful. Should I trust peer-reviewed medical evidence or you? Gee. That's a tough one.

Thanks for your contribution. I'll make a point of kicking this every day for a month.

[Hellbound Hellhound]

15. Kick away. I'll even help. I welcome more people seeing our little "interaction" here.

I'd respond to your "points" but to be honest they're not even worth my time. The only thing worth it was pointing out that this is a pure propaganda piece with a social-media-inclusive "dataset" that didn't include the periods of time of the Ministry of Health inflating the casualty numbers.

Fact is fact, and the OP isn't.

[iemanja]

17. Methodology

Methods We used a three-list capture–recapture analysis using data from Palestinian Ministry of Health (MoH)
hospital lists, an MoH online survey, and social media obituaries. After imputing missing values, we fitted alternative
generalised linear models to the three lists’ overlap structure, with each model representing different possible
dependencies among lists and including covariates predictive of the probability of being listed; we averaged the
models to estimate the true number of deaths in the analysis period (Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024). Resulting
annualised age-specific and sex-specific mortality rates were compared with mortality in 2022.

Have you ever published in a peer-reviewed journal? Do you have any concept of what's required? I seriously doubt it. You took one look at the title and decided it didn't fit your goal of minimizing Palestinian deaths and decided to post unrelated cant. You've exposed yourself.

[Hellbound Hellhound]

19. Yes, yes, and you'd be wrong regarding peer-reviewed journals.

Guess what. You pay your way in. Got money? You can get peer reviewed, and that was back in 2006.

I suggest you read your own article. Time and time again, the study insists that it's "inclusive of estimates based on a (completely unrelated conflict) to extrapolate data".


It's propaganda. It uses "self reporting" from Hamas-run social media with a 30% accuracy and methodologies from an unrelated conflict to extrapolate potential casualties and even then acknowledges a flatlining of civilian deaths up until they chose to end the study when it "Suddenly" jumps.

I'm honestly no fan of unnecessary suffering or casualties but I'm even less a fan of propaganda.

[Dave Bowman]

26. "I'm even less a fan of propaganda."

Lol, yeah, except for Israeli propaganda, apparently.

[iemanja]

32. It's statistical analysis

Lancet is a well-respected journal. You don't like the study's findings, so you're making stuff up. If a study with the very same methods indicated that the Gaza Health Ministry had inflated the numbers, you'd be all over it. Your argument isn't close to convincing. You dismissed it before you even look at it, as your posts here demonstrate. Well, your first post cited a study saying the Health Ministry numbers were accurate, so that was pretty funny.

[iemanja]

33. Lancet does not pay reviewers

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01057-1/fulltext

It's also rated as a highly-reliable, pro-science publication. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-lancet/ Therein lies your problem with it.

[Beastly Boy]

38. None of the authors are affiliated with Lancet.

They are all affiliated with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and some are still graduate students in this institution.

[Dave Bowman]

25. Stop it with all these facts, it might create discomfort and/or cognitive dissonance for a tiny minority of people.

[Dave Bowman]

28. "Kick away. I'll even help"

Mmm, I'm afraid that it won't be possible.

[brush]

29. There could be many bodies still buried in the rubble in Gaza. IMO the death count will go up.

[Dave Bowman]

31. I agree, it will be horrific when they proceed to clear the rubbles.

[iemanja]

35. Thanks!

[Beastly Boy]

37. It was not.

It was published online, via four university web sites:

- one belonging to theFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine,

- one belonging to the School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan

-one belonging to International Health System Research Group, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

- and one belonging to Department of Emergency Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven,

with instructions to direct all correspondences regarding this article to one of its authors.

The questionable sources of data used in this study may explain why it was never submitted for peer review.

There is no indication that it was ever peer reviewed, or even editorially reviewed by the web administrators of the above mentioned institutions.

All of the above information is included on the first page of the article, along with a statement that this is an open access article, which is therefore not intended for peer review.

[Beastly Boy]

36. It was not an academic study.

Last edited Sun Jan 26, 2025, 02:21 AM - Edit history (2)

It was published online, as your link clearly states, not in a peer-reviewed journal.

Two of the three data "lists" used in the study, a Hamas Ministry of health survey and social media obituaries, are highly suspect with regard to their reliability. The third one, official hospital lists, have not been confirmed by independent sources.

The conclusion of the article clearly states the non-academic findings of this study as (educated?) opinions of its authors, and bares nodirect relationship to the analysis undertaken in the study. Furthermore, the authors state that the nature of their findings is not scientific, and is incomplete:

More fundamentally, our findings warrant immediate diplomatic initiatives to achieve an immediate and sustained cessation of hostilities and a lasting deal that includes the release of Israeli hostages and thousands of Palestinian civilians imprisoned by Israel. Just as in other settings, active investigation of potential war crimes committed seems important to affirm justice principles and hold perpetrators from all sides accountable. Quantitative analyses similar to ours have previously informed these investigations. We thus encourage the scientific community to supplement and improve on our work, while also extending it to other settings

(bolding mine)

[Celerity]

16. The title of that poster's erstwhile gotcha article: 'Why the Gaza Health Ministry's death count is considered reliable'

The poster wilfully left that part out.

Wonder why.......................

[iemanja]

18. We're supposed to look at pictures of rubble and conclude no one was actually killed

To believe Israel's defenders, we'd have to believe that Israel has been bombing Gaza for well over a year but has had remarkably little effect, as though it were the most incompetent military on the planet.

[Celerity]

24. I dismiss your snarky, condescending personal attack: 'Forgive me for assuming competence.'

Especially as you were the one playing 'bury the lede' games.

[Dave Bowman]

27. Yeah, how convenient.

[enid602]

21. Make the look bad.

“. . .they're revising and underreporting numbers to make Israel and the Jews look bad. . .”

They can’t make them look any worse.

[Hellbound Hellhound]

22. Considering this study includes "instagram" as a source, I think Hamas is making themselves look worse.

I could be wrong though, as apparently some willful idiots are swallowing the Hamas propaganda hook line and sinker.

[Lovie777]

14. I follow both ..........

the attack on 10/7/2023.

BiBi will still kill and the other side will too.

[Sky Jewels]

30. But remember, it's only genocide if it happens to Israelis.

Gazans don’t count.

[iemanja]

34. Kick