Q Why didn't oil prices spike over the United States' invasion and "take over" of Venezuela and the kidnapping...

[Ranting Randy]

Q) Why didn’t oil prices spike over the United States' invasion and “take over” of Venezuela and the kidnapping of their President?

A) To misquote Lieutenant Worf from Star Trek the Next Generation: “Capitalism in general and the oil industry in specific have no honor”

[Johonny]

1. They have a large reserve

But not a lot of it is hitting the commodities market is my guess. Or to put it another way, they already embargoed the oil, so whatever effect on the market happened already.

It makes you think think these oil fields aren't too highly thought of.

[BannonsLiver]

2. We were in a glut even before Trump seized the oil assets of another oil producing country.

[Amishman]

3. Venezuela's oil industry has been in decay for two decades

Last edited Mon Jan 5, 2026, 12:12 PM - Edit history (1)

Around 2000, they were producing over 3 million barrels per day. Today, they're under 1 million barrels. They're simply not a big player anymore.

What they do produce is very heavy crude, to the point they are known to buy light crude and import it, just so they can blend their own production into something more usable. Most refineries can't process it, and it's not really as fungible as other oil blends. Not to mention quite a bit goes to China, and some of that is handled as repayment of prior Chinese aid / loans.

Plus futures markets had already priced in Venezuelan disruption. IMO it's what broke the long downward trend, and bounced the market off it's six month low of $55 back in december.

Oil production facilities weren't it in Venezuela, so there also is a possibility that with Maduro removed, the disruption to export will be lifted in the not too distant future.

[ananda]

4. So maybe it's more about Trump's insane need to be a war president...

and use bombs on people, which really turns him on.

[MineralMan]

5. Venezuela's Oil Production Is Quite Small Right Now

It will not increase markedly anytime soon, either. So, since not much oil is coming from that nation at the moment, there's no real impact from an increase or decrease in Venezuelan production.

It is true that the country has a very large petroleum resource, but it is currently not being tapped effectively. The infrastructure has deteriorated over several decades and will require massive revision and repairs. So, not much of an effect on the world's oil market.

[Greg_In_SF]

6. Venezuela is only

about 1% of the world's oil supply.