Bernie Sanders is on CNN NOW......and he's got new glasses........he is saying the US population should get at least

[a kennedy]

50% of the profits of the AI companies!!!!! Gawd I love him.

[WSHazel]

1. I wish politicians were smarter about bubbles

The AI companies, other than the chip makers and some data center builders, are unlikely to see any profits. Ever.

[MadameButterfly]

3. Really?

Please enlighten me further.

[WSHazel]

23. I will try, but I recommend Ed Zitron

He is shredding AI on his blog and YouTube.

1) it is not intelligent. Current AI is a really good search engine, but it is not intelligent. It is not thinking. This limits its productive use.

2) it is insanely expensive to run. The amount of compute power needed to run a simple “dialogue” with the AI engine can eat up a monthly subscription in about an hour, depending on the complexity.

3) The entire supply chain is based on absurdly huge demand projections that would make AI 2-3x the current software industry. Why would people buy that much given its technological limitations?

4) Nvidia and others are stuffing their supply chains. They have already shipped more GPU’s then could be installed this year.

5) The data centers (think Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, Oracle) are buying the chips/GPUs, and many data centers have been announced but haven’t been started. A data center’s profitability is based on massive government subsidies, and there has been a bipartisan revolt against them by people. There needs to be a lot more data centers for AI to achieve profitability, and building has slowed down.

6) Circular deals - GPU buying has slowed, so Nvidia and others are paying OpenAI and Anthropic to buy Nvidia chips by buying stock in OpenAI and Anthropic. Amazon and Microsoft are doing similar with their data centers. This is a really bad sign, because it points out that the AI software companies are nowhere close to cash flow positive, but VCs are not willing to fill the breach. The vast majority of investors funding AI are able to treat that investment as revenue, thereby inflating their own stock price.

This is about a third of the problems with AI economics.

If any part of this slows down, the entire ecosystem, which has been carrying the stock market since 2022, starts to have serious problems.

[rurallib]

26. could you include a link, please?

[WSHazel]

28. Here is one link, there are many more

Zitron is the most concise in his analysis and most frequent speaker, but there are many others raising concerns. Mark Cuban, Jamie Dimon, others.

[MadameButterfly]

31. THanks. This is fascinating

[Betty Boom]

5. Nvidia

Which is exactly why on the advice of a friend in the business I bought 1000 shares of Nvidia at the beginning of 2023 for a little over $14,000. As of today’s statement from Edward Jones, it’s worth a little over $224,000. I should mention that includes at least one split. The chipmakers are where the money is.

[DFW]

14. In 1998, a broker gave me similar advice

Since I was already traveling like a whirlwind for my job, I hardly paid any attention to any such advice from a broker. But this one time I did. I bought 1000 shares of Texas Instruments at $54. In the first eight years, it split two-for-one three times, so now I had eight thousand shares. It went up to over $75, but during the Cheney-Bush recession of 2008, it went down to $20. I asked the (now new) broker if I shouldn’t buy more? She said no, too many eggs in one basket. Great advice THAT was, right? It’s now over $300. At least I kept the rest. Like I said, I paid little attention to this game. I pay even less now. There seems little sense in selling for a big profit when well over half of it will be gobbled up by two different governments. I’m better off leaving it to my NY-based daughter, who would only be taxed once on it. My Germany-based daughter has made so much money already that she doesn’t want anything from me anyway (she, or her kids, will get some despite that), since she has probably already made more than I ever will.

[Betty Boom]

19. I've purchased other stock over the years, but never had one though as crazy as this one did

It’s been fun watching it grow. I don’t plan on touching it. I have a tendency to just hold on when it comes to the stocks part of my portfolio. The market goes up. The market comes down. The market goes back up.

[DFW]

20. It's a spectator sport for me as well

I don’t even know the German tax rate for capital gains, or even if they have such a category. Way back when, such gains were labeled “speculative gains” and completely exempt from taxation in Germany. At the onset of the war-damaged Federal Republic, I guess this made sense, as the government was desperate to encourage the population to invest. Now that investing in the stock market here is almost as routine as it is in the States, the government has decided, “hey, we want some of that!” But I haven’t bought or sold any stock since I became a full-time German resident, so I haven’t bothered to find out. Outside of our two yearly trips to the USA together, we really don’t live an opulent life, so we still live within our means despite my 73% income tax (between Germany and the USA).

If circumstances change, and I should need to sell some stock, I guess I’ll find out quickly what the effect would be.

[Celerity]

32. Capital gains tax in Germany (Kapitalertragsteuer ie KESt)

https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/germany/individual/income-determination

snip

Capital gains from financial investments (e.g. sale of shares) are subject to a flat tax rate of 25% plus 5.5% solidarity surcharge (in total 26.375%, plus church tax if applicable), which is generally withheld at source automatically upon distribution of the gains. Related expenses cannot be deducted. Capital gains qualify for the 'investor's allowance' of EUR 1,000 per taxpayer and year for the total of all financial investment income. This amount is doubled in the case of married taxpayers filing jointly. Special rules apply on the taxation of capital gains from the sale of a significant interest in a corporation (1% or more).

Special partial tax exemptions apply on capital gains from the sale of mutual funds units, depending on the nature of the fund.

Other capital gains are taxable in Germany at individual progressive rates only if the sale is within one year (for movable assets) or ten years (for real property) after the purchase date. Since 2024, these capital gains are only taxable if the profit exceeds EUR 1,000 (previously EUR 600) per year in total. Further tax relief may be applicable under specific conditions if the property was used for private purposes.

for more detail see:

https://www.firma.de/en/accountancy/capital-gains-tax-in-germany/

[Hassin Bin Sober]

2. If we had listened to Bernie in the first place we wouldn't be in this mess.

[W_HAMILTON]

13. I think too many people listening to Sanders in the first place is why we are in this mess to begin with.

[betsuni]

17. If only Harry Reid hadn't been able to talk Sanders out of primarying Obama in 2012.

But at least then people would've caught on that "democratic socialism" revolution means regulated capitalism, same as liberal Democratic policies (FDR/LBJ) and there isn't any ideological difference except for strategy. There could've been unity and progress.

[mvd]

15. Exactly

Of course, no one has to love Bernie. But I don’t have to like the centrist direction of the party, either.

[Rob H.]

27. Yep nt

[MadameButterfly]

4. 50% isn't enough if they steal my work

and I can't practice my profession. And if there aren't any more artists because who can compete?
They have to stop the theft.

[Betty Boom]

6. Adapt. Adjust

All the buggy whip factories are still out of business.

[AZ8theist]

10. My cannonball factory has been pretty slow for a while now.....BUT

...new orders are gonna come in any day now!!

The President said we're the hottest country on the planet!!

New business is pouring in!!! Prices down 6, 7, 800 PERCENT!!

[MadameButterfly]

30. Replacing old inventions with new inventions

is not the same as replacing art made by humans with art made by machines. Machines which cannot make art without stealing from past and current human artists.

I'm speaking for artists but it's not the only field where human input and human activity should not be eliminated.
I support Bernie's idea; but it only addresses part of the problem. It's not just about the money. It's about what kind of world we want to live in.

[WSHazel]

29. 50% of a negative number is a negative number

AI is probably one of the most absurd investment bubbles ever created.

[Emile]

7. Andrew Yang was ahead of his time.

Andrew Yang, a former Democratic presidential candidate, proposed a universal basic income of $1,000 per month

[calimary]

8. Boy was he ever!

[a kennedy]

12. OMG....WANG/Sanders!!!!!! Seriously....2028!!!!!

OMGAWD, I feel a movement!!!!? And I totally,have forgotten about Andrew Wang

[a kennedy]

16. Wang/Sanders 2028.

Seriously…love both these men. How do we get them on the 2028 ticket????

[DFW]

21. Financing shouldn't be hard to obtain for an Independent run

The exploratory committee for the Republican ticket of Donald Trump, Jr. and Eric Trump (otherwise known as “Trump and Gump 2028” ) would surely be willing to back such run with a few dozen million in secret PAC money. Anything if it might split the Democratic vote in a year when we should otherwise have a cakewalk to (whatever is left of) the White House.

[gulliver]

9. Sorry, but remember he's not a Democrat

At least he has some clue about AI being important. His take is pathetic, but at least he is saying something.

[state of stupid]

11. I do not have any good answers to any of this. I used to tell people if you

are going to be replaced by automation and robots, do not go looking for a job that
could be replaced by automation and robots, look for a job fixing the automation and
robots. With all the speculation of no need for humans to work because AI is going to
replace you; then why do I need to live since it would appear I am no longer needed?
The longer I live, the more I think that these assholes that think that way are people
that really need to be locked up someplace where they cannot be a threat to mankind.

[Emile]

22. You don't think robots can fix robots?

[state of stupid]

25. Yes, there is no doubt that can be done. I also wonder at what point we have to

decide what we will be doing to earn a living having been replaced by machines?

[Matthew28]

18. We shoudl set up a basic income

To make sure everyone lives without fear of homelessness, hunger or poverty ever again in this country.

[Blue Full Moon]

24. This has been coming since the 1980s.

40 plus years to prepare which wasn't done. This from Alan Watts has been the plan so far.

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