When Trump Jawbones the Market, Bet Against Him at Your Peril

[question everything]

The oil market unfolded in a familiar way last Monday. The day began with reports that Iran had stopped talking to the U.S. through mediators, sending oil up $3 a barrel.

Then that afternoon, President Trump posted on social media that Israel was pulling back in Lebanon, and Hezbollah had agreed to stop shooting. Oil dropped $1. Less than 15 minutes later, Trump posted that talks with Iran were proceeding at a “rapid pace.” Oil fell an additional 50 cents.

By week’s end, Hezbollah and Israel were still exchanging fire, and talks with Iran had yielded no agreement. Still, the episode reinforced a pattern in place throughout the war. Through verbal interventions, Trump has repeatedly taken the steam out of oil prices—not by restoring oil flows but by inflicting losses on those betting he won’t.

It’s not just oil. Trump and his officials have pushed around stocks, interest rates, foreign exchange and mortgages. They don’t

(snip)

Trump and his officials are more obsessed with markets and willing to steer them. Treasury, at the direction of Secretary Scott Bessent, a former hedge-fund manager, bought pesos to support Argentine President Javier Milei ahead of a crucial legislative election last year. In January, it signaled it might buy yen, then under severe downward pressure. Both currencies rallied.

Last January, Trump ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities in a bid to lower mortgage rates. Yields on the securities promptly dropped a 10th of a percentage point.

More..

https://www.wsj.com/economy/when-trump-jawbones-the-market-bet-against-him-at-your-peril-92825a3e?st=juXmDd&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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[bucolic_frolic]

1. Futures are sharply lower across the board this morning

About 1.5% roughly. This will be a plunge. Some guy who called the 2008 crash 2 weeks in advance was on YouTube showing his exact same method, about a week ago, saying it's here again, two weeks hence. Don't believe coincidences you read second hand.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. 3:30pm, 30 minutes to market close, rare to see such a down day midweek

Dow Jones -1.74% -884.44
S&P 500 -1.56% -115.23
Nasdaq -1.95% -500.16
Russell -0.95% -27.13

[Abolishinist]

3. For the last several years I"ve kept a daily end of day balance report in Excel.

As the last week has been absolutely horrible, I decided to do a 5-day total win/lose. As it turns out, the last five days have been the WORST for total dollar losses since I started this, and most probably ever.

To be clear, ONE stock in particular is responsible for most of this - a huge increase followed by a large decrease - but still.