Study links past emissions to trillions in future economic damages

[OKIsItJustMe]

https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/study-links-past-emissions-trillions-future-economic-damages

Future climate damages from past greenhouse gas emissions dwarf the economic harm already inflicted.

March 25, 2026
By Josie Garthwaite

In brief

• Researchers developed a new framework for calculating “loss and damage,” or harms from climate change that countries can’t prevent by cutting emissions or avoid through adaptation.
• U.S. emissions since 1990 have caused more than $10 trillion in global economic damages, with roughly a third of the damage hitting the country’s own GDP.
• Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is a potential alternative to compensation for damages caused, but becomes much less effective if action is delayed.

The economic damage yet to come from carbon dioxide emitted decades ago far exceeds the harm it has wrought so far, according to a new Stanford University study.

The research, published on March 25 in Nature, puts a dollar value on the harm done to individual nations and the world by carbon dioxide emitted over time by countries and major companies.

U.S. emissions since 1990, for example, have caused more than $10 trillion in global economic damages, according to the analysis. This includes large negative impacts in developing economies, including $330 billion in Brazil and $500 billion in India. In addition, nearly $3 trillion, or roughly a third of the damage caused by U.S. emissions, fell within the United States itself, while $1.4 trillion landed in Europe.

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Burke, M., Zahid, M., Diffenbaugh, N.S. et al. Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon. Nature 651, 959–966 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10272-6