But what you're saying is that if Ukr were partially trashing Russia's oil infrastructure and the sanctioned-ships blockade of Venezuela really happened there'd be a supply restriction.
Companies aren't going to take billion dollar hits just because they like Trump.
Gas prices yesterday at my favorite grocery store just north of Houston were $2.13.
But some details.
Russia exports crude oil. So far 3 tankers, as far as I know, have been tanked by Ukr. Two Venezuelan ones. Out of thousands of tankers. So that's far less than a 0.5% reduction in tanker-transported oil. That doesn't count all the oil transported by pipeline. Plus, that's crude oil.
Russia's refining industry's been hit hard. Those sites convert crude to gasoline. Russia exports a small amount of gasoline and that's off the market. But it's a very small percentage of gasoline refining capacity, all things considered. Meanwhile, OPEC's cranked production. And there's still threat of recession and with production up and capacity not hurting and demand flat, you get exactly what 12th-grade economics in Texas would suggest: reduced or flat prices.