The Fermi Paradox Has A Disturbing Solution

[Disaffected]

18. That is the crucial point. To elaborate a bit,

we have absolutely no idea what the odds are of intelligent life evolving on a habitable planet. All we know, because we are here, if that the odds are not zero and, that the chances are not equal to 1 (i.e. a certainty). Therefore the actual odds lie somewhere between those two extremes but we have no idea at all of where.

For instance, if the odds of intelligent life developing on a habitable planet were 0.1, then, given the number of inhabitable planets we have discovered, the galaxy should be teaming with intelligent life. OTOH, if the odds are extremely low, say one in a trillion, then the odds are that we are the only ones in existence and, maybe the only ones that ever have existed.

It may also be that the chances of even primitive life (organisms capable of reproducing and evolving) developing are relatively high but, the odds of such life becoming "intelligent" i.e. enough to develop technology, may still be extremely low.

Calculations BTW, such as the famous Drake equation, to estimate the amount of intelligent life out there somewhere are therefore pretty meaning less as the calculation involves multiplying together a number of probabilities, one of which is the odds or intelligent life developing on a habitable planet. Such a calculation is no more accurate than the least accurate odds estimation therefore the not uncommon supposition that intelligent life must be prevalent is quite meaningless and, the Fermi paradox is not really the paradox it seems.