538 has Hillary losing IA.

[rjsquirrel]

12. Let polls roll off you

You can't change them; they are meaningless individually; trends matter more than momentary results; the margins of error is such that either a lead or a deficit needs to be tempered by the realization that it could be off 3-4 points in either direction for either or both candidates; state polls are both more variable and generally lower in quality and accuracy and less frequent; all likely voter models are guesses and predictions; and it's far too early for polls to be meaningfully predictive.


We know Trump can win. We know it's close. That's all that we need to know to push harder. There will be surprises and scares and trash talk and bad polls and good ones.

Watch next week's national polls from the major pollsters. If this convention doesn't earn a substantial bounce for Hillary Ill be surprised.

Trump is his own worst enemy. Remember there's still debates to come and he is completely overmatched by Hillary.