he is a Dead Man Walking.
Libs won't want to go down the same road as Labor, but when the polls keep dropping, backbenchers in particular get very nervous about their seats. They're currently set to lose decisively; if Abbott's polls keep dropping, it will become a landslide, a repetition of Queensland (ever notice how alike Abbott and Newman are?)
He's refused to negotiate on a demonstrably unfair budget, he's reinstated knighthoods without consulting anybody, and now he's managed to piss off the most conservative in his party by dumping Phil Ruddock, in effect blaming him for the leadership spill, something he brought on all by himself.
Now he's trying to bully the Indonesians over the two drug-runners, and people with an understanding of Indonesia are warning he's more likely to ensure that they will die. But Abbott doesn't understand anything except bullying to get his own way, and their deaths could be the final nail in his political coffin.
Turnbull? Most likely, I should think, because he can win over the Centre. There are many Libs who mistrust his slightly-leftie thinking, but they'll probably just have to bite the bullet or risk losing their seats.
But if the Libs want any chance of winning next year, Abbott has to go. I'd rather he stayed, because I don't have much confidence in Bill Shorten's ability to take on Turnbull, but I'm looking at it from their point of view.
He won't go quietly though - he'll be doing a Newman. I hear Campbell's been ringing up his former colleagues and ranting that they were responsible for his downfall. That's be Tones too - he will never, ever accept that his problems are all of his own making. Typical bully.
It will be fun to watch.
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