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Emrys

(8,090 posts)
11. A number of polls since I last posted have shown varying results,
Tue May 4, 2021, 03:50 PM
May 2021

not widely beyond the usual margins of error, but as I've pointed out before, the D'Hondt system, with its added uncertainty of how regional list votes play out, makes elections particularly hard to predict, and a percentage point or two either way can lead to vastly different outcomes.

All that said, here's the latest poll by YouGov for The Times which may prove prescient or (more likely as I see things at the moment) an outlier:

Scottish election: SNP and Greens set for historic election success
...
The YouGov research for the Times forecasts a four-seat majority for Nicola Sturgeon’s party.

The pro-independence Greens, meanwhile, are on track to more than double their return, with 13 MSPs. That would put them just four seats behind Labour, who are predicted to lose out to the Tories in the battle for second place.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice used the survey results to draw up seat predictions for Thursday's vote.

According to his analysis, the SNP would win 68 seats, while Conservatives win 26, five fewer than in 2016.

Labour would win 17, down seven, the LibDems four, down one, and Alex Salmond’s Alba Party would return one MSP.

https://archive.is/BK2ZY#selection-1515.3-1523.36


Other polls have made the election much more of a squeaker for the SNP, varying between just missing an overall majority (in practice almost certain to be topped up by the Greens to form the next government), and a bare one- or two-seat majority.

The Alba Party have varied between 2 and 6% of the nationwide vote. Cagey predictions on that basis (they're only running as a regional list party, so it's the percentage in an individual region that would matter) have veered between no seats at all and maybe 4 or so. Curtice has (perhaps overgenerously, but he's the seasoned pro) awarded them 1 seat with 3% of the vote

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saw a vid w/Laurence Fox running for LOndon mayor. seems to be a trumper with a posh msongs Mar 2021 #1
Bottom of the barrel T_i_B Mar 2021 #2
too bad I liked him on Lewis tho his character was a bit of a clod nt msongs Mar 2021 #3
If you think Fox is pretty dreadful T_i_B Apr 2021 #7
Actor Fox has the self-awareness of a slug muriel_volestrangler May 2021 #13
Scottish Parliament elections Emrys Apr 2021 #4
One other poll I forgot about T_i_B Apr 2021 #5
New post-Alba Party launch poll out, though its methodology is flawed Emrys Apr 2021 #6
New IpsosMORIScot/STV poll out: Emrys Apr 2021 #8
Another poll released today, this one from Opinium/Sky News Emrys Apr 2021 #9
A number of polls since I last posted have shown varying results, Emrys May 2021 #11
Oxford City Council, and Oxfordshire County Council elections LeftishBrit Apr 2021 #10
Actually Stansfield isn't standing this time LeftishBrit May 2021 #12
Labour won the PCC election where I live T_i_B May 2021 #21
The Tories won it in Thames Valley, but it was closer than previously... LeftishBrit May 2021 #22
Just voted in the Scottish Parliament election. Emrys May 2021 #14
Voted LeftishBrit May 2021 #15
I was the first one in my local polling station! T_i_B May 2021 #16
If I'd been one of the first to arrive, it would have been interesting as it turns out... LeftishBrit May 2021 #17
Conservatives take Hartlepool from Labour in by-election T_i_B May 2021 #18
Sheffield Council has gone to No Overall Control T_i_B May 2021 #19
Not much change on Oxford City Council LeftishBrit May 2021 #20
Latest Discussions»Region Forums»United Kingdom»Local government, London ...»Reply #11