Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Campaigns

progree

(11,565 posts) Sun Sep 18, 2022, 08:36 AM Sep 2022

3

Ughh, Barnes (D) was neck-and-neck a few days ago (U.S. Senate, WI, running against Ron Johnson) [View all]

Barnes was neck and neck a few days ago in 538, but now it is 56-44 in simulations favoring Johnson, 3 most recent polls are for Johnson, 9/18 920 AM ET visit,
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/wisconsin/

Edit: I'm no 538 methodology expert, but this isn't the same as the odds of winning ... the most recent polls (all favoring Johnson unfortunately) are Johnson +4, Johnson +1, Johnson +1. Following a string of polls favoring Barnes ( +2, +7, +4, +2)

========================================

538 Still shows this the closest of the Senate races.
Scroll half way down the page to the table
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

There's a DU link to contribute: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/duforbarnes22

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

13 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Ughh, Barnes (D) was neck-and-neck a few days ago (U.S. Senate, WI, running against Ron Johnson) [View all] progree Sep 2022 OP

Sounds like cherrypicking after negative ad bombardment GreenWave Sep 2022 #1

I think 538 uses the same model for all the races, and it's been one of the two closest Senate races progree Sep 2022 #3

Incumbents are hard as hell to get rid of. jimfields33 Sep 2022 #5

Nope . . ... Lovie777 Sep 2022 #2

That's a huge lead. Don't get demoralized Wisconsin. VOTE! Raven123 Sep 2022 #4

That's a one point lead. padfun Sep 2022 #6

It's still neck and neck- 56/44 are the odds, not the polling average. Nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 2022 #7

I think we are naive when we believe they can't mucifer Sep 2022 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author PortTack Sep 2022 #9

Marc Pocan and Tammy Baldwin are gay, Barnes is a black Lt Gov. LakeArenal Sep 2022 #10

Thx LakeArenal.... PortTack Sep 2022 #11

Russia interfered in Feingold election. LakeArenal Sep 2022 #12

Again ...thx for the informed post about WI politics! PortTack Sep 2022 #13

Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Campaigns»Ughh, Barnes (D) was neck...»Reply #0