#1 is the best option. Go with your gut and let the chips fall where they may.
Also hope that Momma T can have a behind the scenes say with him, especially after the Arkansas pipeline leak, and others which Rachel Maddow (she is hot/cold sometimes) highlighted a few days ago.
Kerry did say in other thread to Miz Greenspan about Obama not wanting "yes people" in his cabinet, and remain hopeful that he and climate gurus and environmentalists can convince Obama. (don't know who Bill McKibben is, but he wrote some articles in the Nation and another blog about Kerry's "fateful" decision on KXL and highlighted the connections of Clinton, Obama, and Kerry's past campaign staffers tied to TransCanada and Alberta). Was going to post the links, but deleted them because they might have had a left slant to them.
Other interesting tidbits (don't know these matter) is that COS McDonough put climate change on the Obama agenda. Obama was at a fundraiser in Frisco at the home of a staunch Keystone XL opponent, (overshadowed by the Obama-AG Harris kerfuffle of course), and Burton said that poll numbers were not going to influence his decision.
To be honest, more dialog is needed on project and the issue of fracking. The problem is that most Americans aren't familiar KXL and its consequences. They only hear that it creates jobs and the unions are for it because they are part of the Dem base that Dems need in 2014/16. Hopeful that the leaks will change Obama's mind, but he is realizing the semi-consequences of appointing Clinton people in his first term.