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Bernardo de La Paz

(55,760 posts)
16. Cash may be king. If there is a brief period of hyperinflation it will be quickly followed by recession, I think
Tue Jan 21, 2025, 10:25 AM
Jan 2025

Short term: tariffs raise prices and consumers pay them because they haven't fully factored it in because until it happens, the date and the targets and the amounts are uncertain. If you planned to get a washer, you either need a washer or have it mostly budgeted for, even if prices immediately go up even for American assembled goods that use 10 to 30% of foreign parts (not uncommon). And prices go up even on 100% American made because suddenly there is headroom to raise prices against tariffed foreign products.

Medium to long term: Trade wars are inevitable even if tRump only goes average of say 15%. And since he is threatening across all products and all countries (three of them prominent), it will be a broad trade war, which will send US international trade spiraling down. That means job cuts, which means a tightening economy. Even though the Fed would lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, the stock markets would become bearish because they would turn to fearing economic contraction more than loving rate cuts. Stock market now is a two year old bull, which is beginning to get a bit old (three is the upper end, I think) and is only a little above the close of Nov 5.

This all comes on top of mass deportations which will create disruptions in supply chains, esp food, and lead to shortages and higher prices generally. There might even be economic contraction along with enough inflation so that profits go down even as prices hover around zero increase or even prices rises.

Disruption and turmoil as forces raising prices (tariffs, labour shortages) compete with forces lowering prices and values (job losses, reduced consumer demand).

The classic adage about deflation which accompanies recessions and depressions is that "cash is king". If you have cash, consider sitting on it for one or two or three years, depending how things go. There might be stock bargains by then.

Just my opinion, no expertise. I'm 85% bonds, 15% cash right now.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

I wouldn't react quickly. elleng Jan 2025 #1
Majority of my acct is cash right now. I'm looking to lock in profits and buy back lower. 58Sunliner Jan 2025 #5
Futures just took a big dump - I think so. jmbar2 Jan 2025 #2
I moved my money out of stocks etc several weeks ago when it was higher FloridaBlues Jan 2025 #3
I moved my majority out of stocks also. Last time he was pres the market crashed. 58Sunliner Jan 2025 #6
I feel the same way that's why I'm selling house. I want to keep my money FloridaBlues Jan 2025 #12
Good luck if it's in Florida. I see a lot of Florida plates here in RVA, but I don't know the market there. 58Sunliner Jan 2025 #13
As of 8:41 PM ET, his coin was down to about $31. John1956PA Jan 2025 #4
I hope Tesla takes a big dump. 58Sunliner Jan 2025 #7
Unfortunately we have to watch them... Lovie777 Jan 2025 #8
You don't have to unless the tax burden will be an issue. 58Sunliner Jan 2025 #9
I think the stock market will be the only thing that does well under trump. jg10003 Jan 2025 #10
It will do well dhol82 Jan 2025 #11
Have you considered foreign currency? 58Sunliner Jan 2025 #14
Cash may be king. If there is a brief period of hyperinflation it will be quickly followed by recession, I think Bernardo de La Paz Jan 2025 #16
You should make this a post. 58Sunliner Jan 2025 #17
Funny happenstance: last 3 digits of SP500 are 6.66 Bernardo de La Paz Jan 2025 #15
Did not sell. The fool said we are going to Mars so RKLB is up 28%. 58Sunliner Jan 2025 #18
The very fact that the market remains at an all-time high, PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 2025 #19
Corporate America is hiving off so much value from workers bucolic_frolic Jan 2025 #20
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