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The Velveteen Ocelot

(122,649 posts)
7. We would still have COVID-19 cases. No countries, even those
Sun Apr 12, 2020, 02:17 PM
Apr 2020

with competent governments and well-managed health care systems, have been able to avoid the disease. However, we would have had stockpiles of equipment and supplies available to states as needed; we would have received accurate briefings about the status of the pandemic; we would have had national guidelines about isolation and quarantine practices; we wouldn't have states bidding against each other for supplies; we wouldn't have the states whose governors flattered the president getting supplies that other states were refused, and adequate financial aid would be available to individuals and businesses harmed by stay-at-home orders - just to name a few things.

You might be able to extrapolate from the data from other countries that have managed the outbreak competently. The US has had 21,667 deaths, or 65 per million population. For example, Norway, one of the better managers, has had 23 deaths per million population, and its curve is already flattening. If the US had the same death rate that would be 7,544 deaths - and 14,123 people who might still be alive. I don't know if this is a valid analysis but maybe it's something to consider.

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