Add into that...
1. The SF defensive line could be susceptible to the run but is filled with pass rushers designed to protect a lead. So other teams may be able to run out the clock. (see the old knock against the Chiefs and other great offenses who had defenses that could not stop the run -- can't come back on offense if you cannot get back on the field. )
2. The SF teams have rarely trailed large to bad teams, who are more likely to give up big leads. The 49ers under Shanahan rarely turn the ball over a lot which is the main way that teams get behind big early to bad teams and then need to come back. Would be curious to see what the record of those 36 teams that beat the 49ers after leading by 8 or more points is. Likely not a lot of bad losses.
3. Curious as to who was hurt on the 49ers when they lost those games... they had a game where CMC and Samuels were both out. Take away a team's two most explosive weapons and yes it is hard to come back. Plus the Left tackle was out for all three recent losses. A few years ago, the 49ers led the league in player games missed due to injury, how many of those 36 come from that season.
4. The mobility of the QB that the 49ers have had has not been the greatest. You do not need to run like Hurts (who BTW is not a great thrower of the football for accuracy or distance), but it helps if you have someone elusive like Mahomes or Burrow who usually scramble to throw but can run when necessary.
Based on this website https://priceonomics.com/modeling-the-probability-of-winning-an-nfl-game/
The win rate at 7 or more point lead is 85% at start of 4th quarter and goes up from there. So, you would assume that starting the 4th wtr an 8 point or more lead is above 85% and increases from there. It is over 90% likely with a one or more score lead at 12 minutes.
People think it is far more common that it is because we remember famous collapses like the butt fumble, but usually you lose.
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