It Wasn't Just Turnout

[DonViejo]

December 24, 2016By Taegan Goddard

Nate Cohn: “Mr. Trump’s gains among white working-class voters weren’t simply caused by Democrats staying home on Election Day.”

“The Clinton team knew what was wrong from the start, according to a Clinton campaign staffer and other Democrats. Its models, based on survey data, indicated that they were underperforming Mr. Obama in less-educated white areas by a wide margin — perhaps 10 points or more — as early as the summer.”

“The campaign looked back to respondents who were contacted in 2012, and found a large number of white working-class voters who had backed Mr. Obama were now supporting Mr. Trump. The same story was obvious in public polls of registered voters. Those polls aren’t affected by changes in turnout.”

“The best data on the effect of turnout will ultimately come from voter file data, which will include an individual-level account of who voted and who didn’t. Most of this data is only beginning to become available. But the limited data that’s already available is consistent with the story evident in the pre-election polling: Turnout wasn’t the major factor driving shifts among white voters.”

###

https://politicalwire.com/2016/12/24/wasnt-just-turnout/