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karynnj

(60,105 posts)
7. There were a few articles about the problems pollsters had in getting people to answer
Mon Jan 2, 2017, 10:33 PM
Jan 2017

I also saw an article pointing out that HRC DID get the percent in all three states that she had polled at the end, but Trump appeared to get most of the "undecided" vote, which was atypically high. This could be partly as the exit polls showed, Trump got the late deciding voters -- it also might be something that I was afraid of -- that a portion of the Trump voters were embarrassed to say they were going to vote for Trump. (I was afraid of it as I saw some DU posts calling out some pollsters who used automated computers rather than people to do the polls. The anger was partly because they gave Trump better results than he got with polls using people)

With WI, I have read that people in the state were asking for help. In addition, Russ Feingold was begging the DNC for help - which is very unusual given that he refused to take money in 2010. Like Clinton, he was at one point about 10 points ahead. In fact, of the pickup Senate seats, he was often considered the most likely. I suspect that Senator Johnson and the Republican allied PACs came in near the end and buried both of them.

With Michigan, it looks like the internal Clinton polls showed there could be a problem, which led to appearances being added at the last minute. It is possible that Clinton may have been too optimistic about PA - after all it was won easily by Obama twice and Kerry. However, Biden was born in Scranton - and in that area he was a favorite son. Teresa Heinz was loved in Pittsburgh and the surrounding area -- and Andre and Chris Heinz helped throughout the state. Although Clinton had a distant connection to PA, it was not as significant as these.

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I agree MichMan Jan 2017 #1
thanks for your reply karynnj Jan 2017 #2
What used to be the Republican party is gone......... Little Star Jan 2017 #3
I think part of Bush's problem was how long he had been out of office - and A LOT had changed during Midwestern Democrat Jan 2017 #5
Reading this reminded me of some lines from the Billy Joel song "Allentown" Jake Stern Jan 2017 #4
The problem is that on election eve, Clinton was up by 6, 5, and 4 points in WI, PA, and MI ucrdem Jan 2017 #6
There were a few articles about the problems pollsters had in getting people to answer karynnj Jan 2017 #7
I can't argue with your feelings, but the lack of quantification ucrdem Jan 2017 #12
I was responding to your post that also contained little substantiation karynnj Jan 2017 #13
My first post quantified, my second post substantiated. You haven't done either. nt ucrdem Jan 2017 #16
Your real clear politics link actually would substantiate what I said karynnj Jan 2017 #17
So Trump gained 7.6 points and Feingold lost in Walker's state because Hillary? ucrdem Jan 2017 #19
I did not say Feingold lost because of HRC -- the point was that there was a wave against karynnj Jan 2017 #20
Nationally Clinton won by 2+ points. So there goes that meme. nt ucrdem Jan 2017 #21
You completely missed the point. karynnj Jan 2017 #22
I get your point. It seems you're blaming the results of GOP cheating on the Clintons. ucrdem Jan 2017 #23
Where do get that I am blaming the Clintons at all? karynnj Jan 2017 #24
I read your OP. ucrdem Jan 2017 #25
You're spot on. The election was absolutely stolen. brush Jan 2017 #31
the thing is they Voted for him in the Primary. They did have a choice and they chose him among JI7 Jan 2017 #8
The over whelming majority of Democrats in the House were against the TPP. The unions think Jan 2017 #9
Exactly karynnj Jan 2017 #10
Stunningly brilliant analysis. Tatiana Jan 2017 #11
On abortion: LeftInTX Jan 2017 #15
I felt sorry for her on that question karynnj Jan 2017 #18
the nativist/nationalist/xenophobic fervor festers where people feel as if geek tragedy Jan 2017 #14
As far as abortion goes, Trump had them at his over-the-top remark to Chris Matthews no_hypocrisy Jan 2017 #26
It is not that complicated Eliot Rosewater Jan 2017 #27
I listened to the various interviews with those voters The_Casual_Observer Jan 2017 #28
Keep in mind that media presentations are mediated. ucrdem Jan 2017 #29
This is exactly why Bernie should have been the nominee. Joe941 Jan 2017 #30
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Why I think Trump won the...»Reply #7