2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Why I think Trump won the rust belt in spite of being the terrible person he is [View all]karynnj
(60,105 posts)I also saw an article pointing out that HRC DID get the percent in all three states that she had polled at the end, but Trump appeared to get most of the "undecided" vote, which was atypically high. This could be partly as the exit polls showed, Trump got the late deciding voters -- it also might be something that I was afraid of -- that a portion of the Trump voters were embarrassed to say they were going to vote for Trump. (I was afraid of it as I saw some DU posts calling out some pollsters who used automated computers rather than people to do the polls. The anger was partly because they gave Trump better results than he got with polls using people)
With WI, I have read that people in the state were asking for help. In addition, Russ Feingold was begging the DNC for help - which is very unusual given that he refused to take money in 2010. Like Clinton, he was at one point about 10 points ahead. In fact, of the pickup Senate seats, he was often considered the most likely. I suspect that Senator Johnson and the Republican allied PACs came in near the end and buried both of them.
With Michigan, it looks like the internal Clinton polls showed there could be a problem, which led to appearances being added at the last minute. It is possible that Clinton may have been too optimistic about PA - after all it was won easily by Obama twice and Kerry. However, Biden was born in Scranton - and in that area he was a favorite son. Teresa Heinz was loved in Pittsburgh and the surrounding area -- and Andre and Chris Heinz helped throughout the state. Although Clinton had a distant connection to PA, it was not as significant as these.
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